Just a thought...
For those of you who are losing sleep over the computer models predicting dire climate catastrophes due to global warming, I had a thought this evening that I'd like to share with you.
Now I'm not saying that there is no global warming, or that it couldn't result in some significant climate shifts over the next century or so. Change is the one constant in the universe, and climate change is no exception. I'll blog more on this topic later -- so all you Ozone Al fans stay tuned.
Getting back to the point, however, point your web browsers to the Weather Underground Tropical Weather page. Click on the link that shows the computer models for Tropical Storm Chris. Note how something as basic as a small tropical storm can result in significant variation in the computer models. All of the variables at this stage of Chris' development result in a wide cone of possible paths. And this is just one little old tropical storm.
Now try to imagine all of the variables necessary to project the climate of the entire planet 100 years from now. Then try to imagine all of the variables that may not have been entered into the list of variables that feed the computer models. When I do this, it reminds me that doom-and-gloom scenarios make for great press releases, but they're far from certainties.
What is certain is that the anti-capitalists will continue to use global warming as a rallying cry to promote socialism, and the wingnuts will continue to deny that anything is happening at all and rally around that old conservative love affair - the status quo. Either way, it's not a happy thought.
Now I'm not saying that there is no global warming, or that it couldn't result in some significant climate shifts over the next century or so. Change is the one constant in the universe, and climate change is no exception. I'll blog more on this topic later -- so all you Ozone Al fans stay tuned.
Getting back to the point, however, point your web browsers to the Weather Underground Tropical Weather page. Click on the link that shows the computer models for Tropical Storm Chris. Note how something as basic as a small tropical storm can result in significant variation in the computer models. All of the variables at this stage of Chris' development result in a wide cone of possible paths. And this is just one little old tropical storm.
Now try to imagine all of the variables necessary to project the climate of the entire planet 100 years from now. Then try to imagine all of the variables that may not have been entered into the list of variables that feed the computer models. When I do this, it reminds me that doom-and-gloom scenarios make for great press releases, but they're far from certainties.
What is certain is that the anti-capitalists will continue to use global warming as a rallying cry to promote socialism, and the wingnuts will continue to deny that anything is happening at all and rally around that old conservative love affair - the status quo. Either way, it's not a happy thought.
posted by DrJDG @ 20:37
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